I WANT a crisis around the debt ceiling.

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oaktonhokie
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I WANT a crisis around the debt ceiling.

Post by oaktonhokie »

I posted this in a thread below. A couple minor edits here....

Cons, is this nuts?

..........

Frankly, I hope it happens. I hope we get to the point where the government is shut down, and the debt ceiling has been reached with no agreement. At that point we will have to make some very serious choices. What to spend, what to save, what to do with taxes, what to do with borrowing. Frankly, this was needed long ago. If this is what it takes to get spending under control, I am okay with that. Further the shutdown of the government reveals that a significant portion of the government is, to be kind, non essential. We can live without much of the government, and much of the spending that we are putting into it.

An alternative of course is that the Marxist decides to once again circumvent the Constitution, act unilaterally as the tyrant he is, and do what he will by executive order. This would bring about a constitutional crisis, & I would welcome that as well. Obama has ignored or avoided the Constitution many times and frankly others have as well, but not as blatantly. This would be a good exorcism for the country.

There is going to be some pain. Good. Our wimps in Congress have dodged and weaved and ducked this crisis for decades now. It's time to solve it. One way or another, this will be addressed. Or I hope it will.

I still think that the Republicans led by senator mc wimp from Arizona will cave in. They will say it's for the good of the country. They will act as if they are statesman and martyrs. They are neither. They are wimps. And they will kick this can further down the road, and nothing will get solved.

I am rooting for a crisis. We need one.
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Re: I WANT a crisis around the debt ceiling.

Post by awesome guy »

I'm on board. Shut it down.
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Re: I WANT a crisis around the debt ceiling.

Post by nolanvt »

oaktonhokie wrote:I posted this in a thread below. A couple minor edits here....

Cons, is this nuts?

..........

Frankly, I hope it happens. I hope we get to the point where the government is shut down, and the debt ceiling has been reached with no agreement. At that point we will have to make some very serious choices. What to spend, what to save, what to do with taxes, what to do with borrowing. Frankly, this was needed long ago. If this is what it takes to get spending under control, I am okay with that. Further the shutdown of the government reveals that a significant portion of the government is, to be kind, non essential. We can live without much of the government, and much of the spending that we are putting into it.

An alternative of course is that the Marxist decides to once again circumvent the Constitution, act unilaterally as the tyrant he is, and do what he will by executive order. This would bring about a constitutional crisis, & I would welcome that as well. Obama has ignored or avoided the Constitution many times and frankly others have as well, but not as blatantly. This would be a good exorcism for the country.

There is going to be some pain. Good. Our wimps in Congress have dodged and weaved and ducked this crisis for decades now. It's time to solve it. One way or another, this will be addressed. Or I hope it will.

I still think that the Republicans led by senator mc wimp from Arizona will cave in. They will say it's for the good of the country. They will act as if they are statesman and martyrs. They are neither. They are wimps. And they will kick this can further down the road, and nothing will get solved.

I am rooting for a crisis. We need one.
Strongly disagree, oak because I don't want our economy/government to fail. If this were to happen, a lot of innocent people would be adversely impacted (my friends and family, your friends and family) because the whiny children occupying Congress can't come to terms on a budget/debt ceiling. That's not the standard I want to set as the most powerful nation on Earth.
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Re: I WANT a crisis around the debt ceiling.

Post by awesome guy »

The whinny children in America elected the whinny child in the White House. Let them too enjoy the turd sandwich they prepared for us.
Last edited by awesome guy on Wed Oct 09, 2013 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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oaktonhokie
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Re: I WANT a crisis around the debt ceiling.

Post by oaktonhokie »

How many people have been hurt by the decades of inaction by government on the debt?

To me it's like being afraid of having a cancerous tumor removed, because surgery would be painful.

Yes it would. Doing something will hurt. Doing nothing could be fatal.

nolanvt wrote:
oaktonhokie wrote:I posted this in a thread below. A couple minor edits here....

Cons, is this nuts?

..........

Frankly, I hope it happens. I hope we get to the point where the government is shut down, and the debt ceiling has been reached with no agreement. At that point we will have to make some very serious choices. What to spend, what to save, what to do with taxes, what to do with borrowing. Frankly, this was needed long ago. If this is what it takes to get spending under control, I am okay with that. Further the shutdown of the government reveals that a significant portion of the government is, to be kind, non essential. We can live without much of the government, and much of the spending that we are putting into it.

An alternative of course is that the Marxist decides to once again circumvent the Constitution, act unilaterally as the tyrant he is, and do what he will by executive order. This would bring about a constitutional crisis, & I would welcome that as well. Obama has ignored or avoided the Constitution many times and frankly others have as well, but not as blatantly. This would be a good exorcism for the country.

There is going to be some pain. Good. Our wimps in Congress have dodged and weaved and ducked this crisis for decades now. It's time to solve it. One way or another, this will be addressed. Or I hope it will.

I still think that the Republicans led by senator mc wimp from Arizona will cave in. They will say it's for the good of the country. They will act as if they are statesman and martyrs. They are neither. They are wimps. And they will kick this can further down the road, and nothing will get solved.

I am rooting for a crisis. We need one.
Strongly disagree, oak because I don't want our economy/government to fail. If this were to happen, a lot of innocent people would be adversely impacted (my friends and family, your friends and family) because the whiny children occupying Congress can't come to terms on a budget/debt ceiling. That's not the standard I want to set as the most powerful nation on Earth.
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Re: I WANT a crisis around the debt ceiling.

Post by nolanvt »

awesome guy wrote:The whinny children in America electrd the whinny child in the White House. Let them too enjoy the turd sandwich they prepared for us.
By artificially shutting down the government and refusing to raise the debt ceiling? Under your rationale for those who 'deserve' to feel the pain of Obama's policies, you should want ACA unleashed on them and the rest of the country. Also, the economic consequences of a prolonged shutdown/default on our debt won't be excluded to just those who voted for Obama.
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Re: I WANT a crisis around the debt ceiling.

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nolanvt wrote:
awesome guy wrote:The whinny children in America electrd the whinny child in the White House. Let them too enjoy the turd sandwich they prepared for us.
By artificially shutting down the government and refusing to raise the debt ceiling? Under your rationale for those who 'deserve' to feel the pain of Obama's policies, you should want ACA unleashed on them and the rest of the country. Also, the economic consequences of a prolonged shutdown/default on our debt won't be excluded to just those who voted for Obama.
When a machine is broke, you typically turn it off for repairs. The pain from a shutdown is nothing next to the pain of insolvency coming if spending is left out of control.
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Re: I WANT a crisis around the debt ceiling.

Post by nolanvt »

awesome guy wrote:
nolanvt wrote:
awesome guy wrote:The whinny children in America electrd the whinny child in the White House. Let them too enjoy the turd sandwich they prepared for us.
By artificially shutting down the government and refusing to raise the debt ceiling? Under your rationale for those who 'deserve' to feel the pain of Obama's policies, you should want ACA unleashed on them and the rest of the country. Also, the economic consequences of a prolonged shutdown/default on our debt won't be excluded to just those who voted for Obama.
When a machine is broke, you typically turn it off for repairs. The pain from a shutdown is nothing next to the pain of insolvency coming if spending is left out of control.
Not a valid comparison.
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Re: I WANT a crisis around the debt ceiling.

Post by awesome guy »

nolanvt wrote:
awesome guy wrote:
nolanvt wrote:
awesome guy wrote:The whinny children in America electrd the whinny child in the White House. Let them too enjoy the turd sandwich they prepared for us.
By artificially shutting down the government and refusing to raise the debt ceiling? Under your rationale for those who 'deserve' to feel the pain of Obama's policies, you should want ACA unleashed on them and the rest of the country. Also, the economic consequences of a prolonged shutdown/default on our debt won't be excluded to just those who voted for Obama.
When a machine is broke, you typically turn it off for repairs. The pain from a shutdown is nothing next to the pain of insolvency coming if spending is left out of control.
Not a valid comparison.
Totally valid.
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nolanvt
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Re: I WANT a crisis around the debt ceiling.

Post by nolanvt »

awesome guy wrote:
nolanvt wrote:
awesome guy wrote:
nolanvt wrote:
awesome guy wrote:The whinny children in America electrd the whinny child in the White House. Let them too enjoy the turd sandwich they prepared for us.
By artificially shutting down the government and refusing to raise the debt ceiling? Under your rationale for those who 'deserve' to feel the pain of Obama's policies, you should want ACA unleashed on them and the rest of the country. Also, the economic consequences of a prolonged shutdown/default on our debt won't be excluded to just those who voted for Obama.
When a machine is broke, you typically turn it off for repairs. The pain from a shutdown is nothing next to the pain of insolvency coming if spending is left out of control.
Not a valid comparison.
Totally valid.
A machine breaking down is not a valid comparison to a multi-trillion dollar economy.
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Re: I WANT a crisis around the debt ceiling.

Post by awesome guy »

nolanvt wrote: A machine breaking down is not a valid comparison to a multi-trillion dollar economy.
It is. You'll need to explain yourself and not just state your opinion as fact.
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Re: I WANT a crisis around the debt ceiling.

Post by TheH2 »

oaktonhokie wrote:I posted this in a thread below. A couple minor edits here....

Cons, is this nuts?

..........

Frankly, I hope it happens. I hope we get to the point where the government is shut down, and the debt ceiling has been reached with no agreement. At that point we will have to make some very serious choices. What to spend, what to save, what to do with taxes, what to do with borrowing. Frankly, this was needed long ago. If this is what it takes to get spending under control, I am okay with that. Further the shutdown of the government reveals that a significant portion of the government is, to be kind, non essential. We can live without much of the government, and much of the spending that we are putting into it.

An alternative of course is that the Marxist decides to once again circumvent the Constitution, act unilaterally as the tyrant he is, and do what he will by executive order. This would bring about a constitutional crisis, & I would welcome that as well. Obama has ignored or avoided the Constitution many times and frankly others have as well, but not as blatantly. This would be a good exorcism for the country.

There is going to be some pain. Good. Our wimps in Congress have dodged and weaved and ducked this crisis for decades now. It's time to solve it. One way or another, this will be addressed. Or I hope it will.

I still think that the Republicans led by senator mc wimp from Arizona will cave in. They will say it's for the good of the country. They will act as if they are statesman and martyrs. They are neither. They are wimps. And they will kick this can further down the road, and nothing will get solved.

I am rooting for a crisis. We need one.
This is a bad idea.

Just one example of why it is a bad idea. Financial transactions, short term and long term, form the backbone of our economy. This has been the case for an extremely long time, this isn't a post 80's thing, or a post 90's thing. This is what helps our economy grow.

For these transactions, treasury bonds serve as collateral. In the repo market alone this is a few trillion dollars. If the collateral is no good, we have Lehman all over again. Liquidity will dry up, i.e. no one will lend short term because you don't know how solvent anyone else is. Institutions will sell assets to get capital, etc. etc. This is just one example of why this is unbelievably stupid. Financial markets are complicated so I don't expect everyone to understand this, but let's just say it isn't good. Considering that we have no problem paying our bills (we discussed this a week ago) this would be a manufactured problem. I repeat, the US government has no problem paying the bills that Congress has authorized.

Another issue is that the interest rate would go up, thus increasing the amount of debt (this doesn't help us). I've pointed out previously (and on old UWS provided a link to support this) that the interest on debt is now lower than the it was before Obama took office. A default would most certainly increase the interest rate. To gain some credibility - I stated that if/when our credit was downgraded that the yield on the treasury would decrease, which was contrary to common sense.
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Re: I WANT a crisis around the debt ceiling.

Post by TheH2 »

awesome guy wrote:
nolanvt wrote: A machine breaking down is not a valid comparison to a multi-trillion dollar economy.
It is. You'll need to explain yourself and not just state your opinion as fact.
If you own a company and you notice a long term problem in the machine but it can still produce product to prevent you missing sales or earnings targets, you keep it running at all costs while fixing the long term problem. I think that's the analogy.
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Re: I WANT a crisis around the debt ceiling.

Post by awesome guy »

TheH2 wrote:
awesome guy wrote:
nolanvt wrote: A machine breaking down is not a valid comparison to a multi-trillion dollar economy.
It is. You'll need to explain yourself and not just state your opinion as fact.
If you own a company and you notice a long term problem in the machine but it can still produce product to prevent you missing sales or earnings targets, you keep it running at all costs while fixing the long term problem. I think that's the analogy.
Not really. The problem is shorter term than that and will ruin the machine if kept running, preventing future use. But a quick stop for maintenance will ensure short and long term operations. Plus the shutdown will remind people it's not being used as intended.
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Re: I WANT a crisis around the debt ceiling.

Post by VoiceOfReason »

OK, let me make a few key assumptions here:

1) If you are saying that you WANT a fight over the debt ceiling, you must also be willing to live through the possibility that the US will default on it's debt.

Why? Well... no offense... but the general approach by conservatives to "negotiating" is to get stuff without giving up anything important. If your goal is to extract meaningful spending cuts from the Ds and offer no tax increases or cuts to programs you support (like the military)... then you are not asking for a reasonable discussion... you are asking to go ALL IN to get your way.

2) You must also be willing for the Rs to be held responsible for the default. No matter what the R Talking Points are... if you say you want to FIGHT and you want to WIN and not offer anything of value to the Ds... then you must take responsibility for the consequences if the Ds don't immediately roll into the fetal position and give you everything you want. And please don't respond with some version of thinking where you thing the Rs can engineer this fight and then try and lay all the blame on the Ds. Other than conservatives, nobody believed that with the shutdown and nobody will believe it this time either.

QUESTION: So, if this is what you guys mean - FIGHT, risk default, R show leadership and accountability... then tell me, what skin do you have in the game? It is somewhat cowardly to exhort people to stand and fight when others will suffer the consequences and you will be fine. What credibility do you guys have?

MY ANSWER: I have plenty of retirement investments in the market and I would like to retire on my own schedule. I have no desire for the market to tank over a fight that can easily be conducted without threatening default. I also have plenty of friends and family who would be harmed by another recession. So, while I do agree with some of your goals (no more budget deficits)... I take issue with using tactics that harm people.

So speak up conservatives! Are you risking your own economic well being? Or are you the guy in the back of the crowd encouraging your friend not to back down from the bully that's about to kick his ass? :-)
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Re: I WANT a crisis around the debt ceiling.

Post by oaktonhokie »

The machine analogy works. Sometimes you need to take it down. Go off line until it's fixed.

What we have are 535 "shop managers" whose boss is a Marxist, who won't fix the machine. They won't slow production to fix it on line and they surely won't take it down for repairs.

They will push for short term production, to avoid a slowdown on their watch.

When it totally breaks, and EVERYTHING is shut down, the shop managers will spring into action.

And blame someone else.

TheH2 wrote:
awesome guy wrote:
nolanvt wrote:l
A machine breaking down is not a valid comparison to a multi-trillion dollar economy.
It is. You'll need to explain yourself and not just state your opinion as fact.
If you own a company and you notice a long term problem in the machine but it can still produce product to prevent you missing sales or earnings targets, you keep it running at all costs while fixing the long term problem. I think that's the analogy.
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Re: I WANT a crisis around the debt ceiling.

Post by TheH2 »

awesome guy wrote:
TheH2 wrote:
awesome guy wrote:
nolanvt wrote: A machine breaking down is not a valid comparison to a multi-trillion dollar economy.
It is. You'll need to explain yourself and not just state your opinion as fact.
If you own a company and you notice a long term problem in the machine but it can still produce product to prevent you missing sales or earnings targets, you keep it running at all costs while fixing the long term problem. I think that's the analogy.
Not really. The problem is shorter term than that and will ruin the machine if kept running, preventing future use. But a quick stop for maintenance will ensure short and long term operations. Plus the shutdown will remind people it's not being used as intended.
The problem is not short term at all, however how short term is the problem in your opinion? How do you define that? Do you realize that the debt to GDP ratio is shrinking? What that means is that as the economy continues to grow we are actually becoming more credit worthy, not less. That's mathematically contrary to your point that it is a short term problem.

I would like to point out that your analogy is only looking at one side and ignores that financial issues I discussed in a previous post.
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Re: I WANT a crisis around the debt ceiling.

Post by Hokie5150 »

TheH2 wrote:
awesome guy wrote:
nolanvt wrote: A machine breaking down is not a valid comparison to a multi-trillion dollar economy.
It is. You'll need to explain yourself and not just state your opinion as fact.
If you own a company and you notice a long term problem in the machine but it can still produce product to prevent you missing sales or earnings targets, you keep it running at all costs while fixing the long term problem. I think that's the analogy.
But you don't keep running the machine in the same fashion if doing so is going to cause a catastrophic explosion taking out the entire factory...
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Re: I WANT a crisis around the debt ceiling.

Post by TheH2 »

Hokie5150 wrote:But you don't keep running the machine in the same fashion if doing so is going to cause a catastrophic explosion taking out the entire factory...
Why do posters here spend so much time on stupid anologies while ignoring the facts?

I agree - you solve the long term problem while leaving the machine up and running in the short term. You don't shut it down and lose income when there are no short term issues.
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Re: I WANT a crisis around the debt ceiling.

Post by Hokie5150 »

TheH2 wrote:
Hokie5150 wrote:But you don't keep running the machine in the same fashion if doing so is going to cause a catastrophic explosion taking out the entire factory...
Why do posters here spend so much time on stupid anologies while ignoring the facts?

I agree - you solve the long term problem while leaving the machine up and running in the short term. You don't shut it down and lose income when there are no short term issues.
There are no short-term issues?!?
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Re: I WANT a crisis around the debt ceiling.

Post by TheH2 »

Hokie5150 wrote:There are no short-term issues?!?
Mathematically no. As the economy grows our debt ratios continue to fall, increasing (not decreasing) the credit worthiness of our country. A AAA S&P debt rated country (and I believe company as well) has never defaulted within 10 years of having that rating. We have no problems funding our government on a year to year basis (see thread last week with the estimates of what people perceived the government income to debt to be to what it actually was). We can borrow at historically low rates (partly due to environment but if our debt was not of the highest credit worthiness that wouldn't be the case). Our government debt us of the highest demand.

I don't understand how anyone on this board can consider this a short term problem. I've laid out numerous times why quantitatively this isn't an issue. It's a fact. I'd love to have a discussion about whether or not this is a short term issue or not but no one seems to want to. Posters just want to believe it is.
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